Bombing Syria is never likely to do anything except feed the chaos

We are creating a temporary buffer zone from which tactical advantage can be gained against potential dangers. We have heard and seen this all too often. Over time, these buffers become strategic fixtures, de facto land grabs and annexations. And, lo and behold, Israel has yet again pushed its nominal borders further into neighbouring sovereign states.

The occupation state now finds itself in what was a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Syrian Golan Heights. Meanwhile, Turkiye is established in parts of northern Syria, keeping a watchful eye on Kurdish militants.

Since 7 October last year, Israel’s response to the cross-border incursion by Hamas has been to take a sledgehammer to the issue and broaden the conflict beyond its Palestinian confines by targeting Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and its sponsor Iran. In doing so, the Zionist state has played an increasingly destructive role in Syria, where Hezbollah targets and Iranian supply lines have been bombed frequently. Such attacks are intended to cripple Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance”, a patchwork of Shia militias spanning Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria.

With the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Israel intends further disruption.

This marks a departure from a policy that it maintained with Assad for some years, one that permitted him and the Syrian Arab Army to operate without molestation subject to one stern caveat: Hezbollah and, by extension, Iranian influence must also be contained. This point is made in documents unearthed recently by New Lines magazine, one that directly involved a channel of communication between an Israeli operative codenamed “Mousa” (Moses) and Assad’s Defence Minister, Lieutenant General Ali Mahmoud Abbas.

A message dated 17 May, 2023, outlines Israel’s indignation at an incident involving the firing of three rockets from the Golan Heights, an action purportedly at the behest of Khaled Meshal and Saleh Al-Arouri of Hamas: “Lately, because of Quds Day and Flag March, we are observing Palestinian activities on your land… We warn you of the prospect of any activity of these parties on your territory and we demand you to stop any [Iranian] preparations for the use of these forces on your territory – you’re responsible for what is happening in Syria.”

The collapse of Assad’s regime, which was spearheaded by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), has brought Israeli intentions to the fore. The group’s leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammad Al-Julani, made mutterings earlier in favour of the Hamas 7 October incursion and expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Now he has expressed no desire to do battle “with Israel or anyone else and we will not let Syria be used as launchpad for attacks”; promised to protect minority rights and disband rebel groups for incorporation into the Ministry of Defence; and dissembled on whether the new administration would be focused on Islamic law.

On 10 December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made fairly redundant remarks that his government had no intention of meddling in Syria’s internal affairs, only to warn Assad’s successors that any move which allows “Iran to re-establish itself in Syria or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it.”

Defence Minister Israel Katz also warned Syria’s triumphant rebel forces that, “Whoever follows in Assad’s footsteps will end up like Assad did. We don’t allow an extremist Islamic terror entity to act against Israel from beyond its borders… we will do anything to remove the threat.”

Since Assad fled on 7 December, Israel’s air force has made it a priority to destroy Syria’s defence capabilities which might be used by any successor regime in Damascus, citing concerns that arms and weapons could fall into the hands of undesirable jihadists. Over 10 and 11 December, 350 air strikes were conducted on anti-aircraft batteries, airfields, weapons production sites (including chemical weapons), combat aircraft and missiles (Scud, cruise, coast-to-sea and air-defence varieties) in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra. “I authorised the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army,” reasoned Netanyahu, “so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists.”

A bold estimate from the IDF about the operation described as “Bashan Arrow”, was that it had destroyed approximately 70-80 per cent of the strategic military capabilities of Assad’s Syrian Arab Army. As of 16 December, the total number of air strikes Israel conducted on Syrian territory over the past week or so was 473.

For any advocate of stability, which would require some measure of military capability on the part of a nation state, this could hardly augur well.

Over the course of this glut of sorties, Israeli troops have militarised the demilitarised zone inside Syria created in the aftermath of the 1973 October War, including Mount Hermon, a site overlooking Damascus. The menacing move on Syrian territory was sanitised by IDF military spokesperson Colonel Nadav Shoshani: “IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way.” Both the Beirut-based Mayadeen TV and the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have taken the gloss off such assessments, stating that the Israel Defence Forces have moved within 16 miles of the Syrian capital.

Crippling the infrastructure of the state that awaits the fledgling ruling parties in Syria, who can only count themselves as a ragtag transitional entity at this point, stirs up the already turbulent, precarious situation. The very scenario which Netanyahu and his planners claim they want to avoid, and Assad sought to prevent, may well be realised. Bombing Syria is never likely to do anything except feed the chaos.