Is foreign capital really withdrawing from China?

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

By Luo Shanshan, People's Daily

Official data show that in 2024, foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland in actual use dropped by 27.1 percent year on year, while the number of new foreign-invested firms increased by 9.9 percent from a year ago.

Are these two figures in conflict with each other?

To answer this question, let's first delve into a story about Walmart's development in the Chinese market.

Over the past few years, retail giant Walmart has been actively closing locations across China. Many people just feel like that "Walmart is withdrawing from China." But is this the whole picture? Certainly not.

On Dec. 18, 2024, Walmart-owned Sam's Club opened its 52nd store in Wenzhou, east China's Zhejiang province. More strikingly, in the third quarter of 2024, Walmart's net sales in China climbed 17 percent year on year.

So how could a company that is allegedly "pulling out of China" maintain steady sales growth in the Chinese market?

Walmart's story highlights important shifts in the Chinese market: as personalized and diversified consumption has emerged as a new trend among Chinese consumers, and with the rapid development of Chinese domestic retailers, traditional business models are struggling to survive in the country. Only those foreign companies that adapt quickly to the evolving Chinese market can succeed.

Simply put, the times have changed. The Chinese market is no longer what it used to be, and China's relationship with foreign investment has also changed.

Does China still need foreign investment?

Before discussing whether foreign investment is leaving the Chinese market, it is essential to clear up one question: Does China still need foreign investment?

China has entered a new stage of high-quality development and has moved from capital scarcity to capital abundance. The country is shifting its focus from attracting foreign investment to a new strategy with equal emphasis on both "bringing in" and "going global."

However, some argue that "China no longer needs foreign investment as before." Some Western media have even hyped up their narrative that "China is no longer welcoming foreign investors."

Apparently, capital abundance and "going global" do not mean that China no longer needs foreign investment. In fact, foreign capital remains crucial in China's "dual circulation" paradigm - the new development pattern that China adopted in 2020, which takes the domestic market as the mainstay while allowing domestic and foreign markets to reinforce each other.

Over the past few years, China has introduced a range of measures for voluntary and unilateral opening up on a larger scale and at a higher level. For instance, it has hosted the China International Import Expo and the China International Supply Chain Expo, reduced negative lists for foreign investment, and granted national treatment to foreign-funded enterprises.

With lower entry barriers, more small- and medium-sized foreign-invested enterprises are entering the Chinese market, which can explain the rapid increase in the number of new foreign-funded enterprises in the country.

Why has the scale of foreign direct investment declined?

Industrial investment is a long-term, rational economic decision influenced by multiple factors in the medium and long term. Therefore, fluctuations in investment align with economic patterns.

In the medium term, China has attracted over one trillion yuan ($136.85 billion) each year in foreign investment for three consecutive years since 2021. The large foreign capital inflow has unleashed investment demand in the country, and the drop in foreign direct investment in 2024 falls within normal economic cycles.

From a long-term perspective, global cross-border investment is shifting toward service-oriented and asset-light industries, thereby leading to a periodic discrepancy between the scale of foreign investment in actual use and the number of new foreign-invested enterprises.

Currently, around 70 percent of foreign investment in China flows into the services sector, which is characterized by asset-light business models, thereby significantly impacting the overall scale of foreign investment.

The next "China" is still China.

How do foreign-invested enterprises view the Chinese market?

"The next 'China' is still China." This is a sentiment widely shared by global investors.

Today's China is experiencing technological breakthroughs and a talent boom, which have led to a substantial increase in total factor productivity and more added value for the "world factory." The huge Chinese market has become a "global market," stimulating domestic demand and providing immense opportunities for foreign companies.

Undoubtedly, a constantly developing China with strong growth momentum remains highly attractive to foreign investors. At the same time, in China's highly competitive open market, foreign-funded enterprises must bring their best expertise to secure a foothold.

In recent years, some foreign enterprises that failed to keep up with the changing Chinese market have withdrawn, while more high-tech foreign investors have come in.

Meanwhile, some Western countries have politicized economic and trade issues in recent years, leading to a continuous downturn in global cross-border investment and presenting challenges to China's ability to attract foreign direct investment. The tougher the external environment, the more necessary it is for China to respond to global uncertainties with higher-quality development and higher-level opening up.

As always, China remains firmly committed to opening up and win-win cooperation with foreign investors.

No matter what, this remains true: partnering with China means embracing future opportunities, and investing in China is investing in the future.