France’s government has fallen and political chaos has returned. Here are 3 scenarios for what could happen next

France’s minority government led by right-wing Prime Minister Michel Barnier has been ousted in a no-confidence vote, the latest shock to the country’s deadlocked political system in a turbulent six months.

The move comes after a Barnier government challenge to the French lower house, the National Assembly. With the National Assembly not likely to support Barnier’s proposed 2025 budget, the prime minister used his executive powers to pass the measure into law without a parliamentary vote.

In response to the move, the two largest political groupings in the assembly, the New Popular Front (left and far left) and the National Rally (far right), proposed a vote of no confidence.

The two blocs represent a majority of the 577 MPs in the assembly, so they easily had the votes to oust Barnier’s government.

The last successful vote of no confidence happened 62 years ago. Now, President Emmanuel Macron must reckon with the latest challenge to his beleaguered leadership: appointing a new prime minister who in turn will appoint a new cabinet.

While the far left and far right would like to see Macron resign as well, nothing so far indicates he would do this. He is not due to face re-election until 2027.

Why did the government fall now?

The Barnier government was appointed by Macron three months ago, based on a narrow calculation following a snap parliamentary election.

Macron triggered the election in June and July in an attempt to strengthen his fragile majority in the assembly. Instead, he lost his majority and found himself with a new legislature even more divided than it was before.

Although an alliance of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front came in first, it did not have enough MPs to hold a majority and form government. Nor did Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally, which got the second-highest number of seats.

To address the situation, Macron united political parties of the centre and moderate right to appoint Barnier, a move that dismayed a significant number of French voters who had supported either the left or far right.

Barnier’s government has therefore always been fragile and its downfall was always very likely. However, his government fell at its big first legislative hurdle: passing next year’s budget.

What could happen next?

As per the French Constitution, the National Assembly cannot be dissolved until July 2025, meaning France’s political landscape will remain precarious until then.

For now, Barnier will remain in a caretaker position until Macron appoints a new prime minister based on a new coalition. This could take days, weeks or even a couple of months. Coalitions are difficult to form in France because political parties are more inclined to be sectarian than cooperative.

Two scenarios are likely and a third one possible.

First, Macron could try to cobble together a new majority to support his centrist MPs and his political agenda. To do this, he’d have to appeal to MPs from the traditional, conservative right and centre left at the same time, perhaps appointing a prime minister from among them as a negotiating chip.

The moderate left-wing MPs he needs, however, are unlikely to support him. They have more to gain in sticking with the alliance they have formed: the New Popular Front. This alliance is made up of left-wing parties (the Greens, Socialists, Democrats and more) that could implement a real leftist agenda of reforms, if they found a way to work together.

This brings up the second possible scenario: a new left-leaning majority government.

The New Popular Front has the largest number of MPs in the National Assembly, but it still doesn’t have the numbers for a majority government. So, if it wants to form government, it will have to secure MPs from the centre – a scenario that would be equally uncertain. Such a motley coalition would be in constant negotiations over bills.

The third scenario – possible but trickier – would see Macron re-appoint the fallen Barnier under the proviso he change the budget bill to appease the opposition and avoid another no confidence vote.

No matter what happens next, one thing remains certain: the next government is likely to be short-lived.

France could even see several governments fall until the next National Assembly elections, which cannot be scheduled before July 2025 at the earliest. Even then, a new election may not resolve the deep schism that has formed in French society since Macron’s election in 2017.

Between 1947 and 1958, France had well over 20 governments. The country’s political system survived, but it was a period of considerable tumult. The period that followed, however, was relatively stable, with strong, majority governments.

While France is certainly experiencing renewed governmental instability at the moment, its institutions and culture will similarly sustain its political system again. French democracy is strong at heart.

What about the 2025 budget?

For now, the 2025 budget is a secondary issue. There will be no American-style government shutdown, as France operates differently: it will use the 2024 budget until a new government is in place.

However, as a member of the European Union, France is supposed to have a yearly budgetary deficit under 3%. Currently, it is more than 5%.

Whichever government comes in next will face enormous pressure to reduce the government’s deficit, which has greatly increased since the pandemic. The country also faces other economic challenges, including falling consumer confidence and slower growth.

And France will be faced with slightly higher interest rates when borrowing on the financial markets to finance its national debt. This means more taxpayer money will be directed towards refinancing the debt as opposed to being used for what the French think are priorities: the cost of living crisis, hospitals, education, police and other essential services.

Romain Fathi, Senior Lecturer, School of History, ANU / Chercheur Associé at the Centre d’Histoire de Sciences Po, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.